|Department of Economics|
Demographic Transition and Economic Growth: Current Approaches and Applications
(Supervisor:Fatma Doğruel )
ABSTRACTThe role of the demography on economic growth was initially treated with population growth for a long time. However recent studies have revealed that demographic changes through the demographic transition have a substantial effect on economic growth. During the demographic transition, the share of working age population increases relatively the share of dependent (non-working age) population. This period is named as “demographic window of opportunity” by the reason of increasing production opportunities which provides economic growth. This study aims to draw out the link between demographic change and economic growth with a theoretical framework and support the “demographic window of opportunity” approach with empirical findings. The Solow–Swan model is extended with demographic variables using a similar approach with Kelley and Schmidt (2005) and, Bloom and Canning (2004). This study contains two application parts: a panel of countries and a regional study for Turkey. The first panel data comprise 90 countries over the period 1960-2012, the second panel data cover 26 regions (NUTS Level 2 Statistical Regions) on Turkey over the1985-2010 period. The findings of the estimations affirm the theoretical view about the impact of demographic changes on economic growth including demographic window indicators to economic growth model is one of the original sides of this study and provides a contribution to the demographic change and economic growth literature. The findings of the alternative demographic variables discovered that demographic window provides economic growth opportunities. Moreover, the results pointed out that the demographic window is unique and short-lived opportunity for economic growth.